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Published: Mon, November 13, 2017
Economy | By Melissa Porter

Record-breaking corn-for-grain production forecast increases again

Record-breaking corn-for-grain production forecast increases again

Wheat futures closed mixed for the day, with corn and soybean futures lower.

Corn carryover on September 1, 2018, was forecast at 2,487 million bus, up 147 million bus, or 6%, from October and up 8% from 2,295 million bus in 2017.

The U.S.D.A. has increased its corn production outlook for Iowa and the nation. Harvested area remained unchanged from October estimates, remaining at a record 89.5 million acres.

As for soybeans, the USDA data released on Thursday were not as bullish as the trade had expected, as the yield was left unchanged and stocks were only lowered 5 million bushels. If realized, corn production will be the second highest on record.

It is expected that USA wheat inventories will decline further into 2019, but the overall structure of the wheat market won't change without severe drought in the European Union or Black Sea region next year.

Most notably, the USDA put this year's corn production at 14.578 billion bushels with yields at a record 175.4 bushels per acre. "Some bulls were betting on a more substantial cut, and that's what triggering selling today".

Today's close will say a lot about the tone of the soybean market, Knorr adds. K.C. December hard red winter wheat ended up 1 cent at $4.27-1/2 a bushel while MGEX December spring wheat gained 8-3/4 cents to $6.43-1/2. Soybeans are down 0.2 percent after climbing 1.2 percent last week.

The world is nevertheless still well supplied with wheat. In turn, ending stocks are pushed higher from 2.340 billion to 2.487 billion bushels. The projected average farm price for 2017/18 held steady at $4.40 to $4.80 per bushel.

The USDA forecast soybean carryover on September 1, 2018, at 425 million bus. "That's actually in line with what my models have been showing, though I didn't expect the agency to make a change yet".

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