Published: Tue, June 06, 2017
Economy | By Melissa Porter

British PM May could lose majority in June 8 election: YouGov projection

United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May could be looking at a smaller majority than what has been anticipated when the 2017 general election happens next week.

However, one of the apparent implications of YouGov's pronouncement yesterday that statistical analysis of their mega poll pointed to a hung parliament is that the company thinks the electoral geography of the election may not work to the Conservatives' advantage after all.

Jeremy Corbyn as United Kingdom prime minister could see a "Trump effect", they point, where the likelihood of increased government spending takes pressure off the Bank of England, pushing short interest rates higher on the expectation benchmark interest rates will also start moving up sooner than initially thought - such a move would likely strengthen sterling.

"I have the plan for the Brexit negotiations but I've also got a plan to build a stronger and more prosperous Britain and I'm confident we can do that because I believe in Britain and I believe in the British people".

That could leave the Tories 16 seats short of the overall majority of 326 needed to govern without the support of other parties.

Opposition Labour party could win 257 seats, up from 232 seats in 2015. The best case scenario for the Conservatives would give the party as many as 345 seats, 15 more than it now holds, while a bad election night could result in just 274 seats for May. However, the previous survey used a different methodology to Wednesday's poll, and included those who were not certain to vote.

On the YouGov website, Rivers sets out how the new model works by interviews approximately 7,000 panellists about their voting intentions in the election.

YouGov, using a technique called "Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification", uses a range of factors including demographics, past elections and voter profiles to build a model which can come up with an estimate of how the vote will be split in individual constituencies.

But its chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare, told The Times that the model had been tested during the run-up to the European Union membership referendum a year ago when it consistently put the Leave campaign in the lead.

'The data suggests that there is churn on all fronts, ' he said, 'with the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to both lose and gain seats'.

"The mask has finally slipped", John McDonnell, a lawmaker who would be finance minister if Labour win the election, said in a statement.

Sterling has been bearing the brunt of increasing market tension in the build up to the election and dropped to a five week low on Wednesday morning, after a YouGov poll showed the ruling Conservative party will fall short of winning a majority.

Green Party co-leader Jonathan Bartley told the Press Association: "If we learned anything form the past two years it is that you can't predict what's going to happen".

"We are expecting consolidation over the next week or so given the see-sawing in the polls", said Martin Arnold, currency strategist at ETF Securities.

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